Thursday, August 30, 2012

$FFIV chart and setup

can that 50 day moving average get any more flat..still working within a channel for last few weeks. 50day is holding as support for the moment but the levels id like to enter for credit put spreads , the premium is less than id like. now would really need a further pullback to bottom of this channel near 90 before entering new spreads. its down 5% today on a down less than 1% market day.. sells off to low 90's might be able to get a spread at/below the Oct lows near 70ish...will also look at OCT when pricing those out.. setting alert at 92 to get on radar.

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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

$VMW chart and setup

been watching VMW along time. right now its fighting with the 50day moving average, its off about 10bucks in last week or so while general market has been sideways. VMW has always been a tough one to get decent premium on credit put spreads but then again it has $2.50 wide strikes. might get an opportunity for an entry if it continues to pullback and/or the Sep/oct market correction comes. not comfortable taking a position here but if it were to pullback closer to the fat crayon support line near 80 i will price something out, either credit put spreads or possibly cash secured puts / risk reversals. setting alert at 82 to get on radar.

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Monday, August 27, 2012

those $AAPL diagonals

right now you are thinking AAPL is never going down again.. all those positive catalysts coming up..the stock has been up 100points in a month or so.. my Jan2014/Sep 600 and 610 short calls are way in the money. heres my thought process. Sep is historically the worst month of the year per cnbc, everyone on one side of the boat again on AAPL also. the deltas of the short calls are right about 90 right now so i still will get a little bit of time decay for rest of SEP. Stock has the ability to sell off like it did in april /may, could do so again either on product announcement disappointment, general market selloff, EU issues..anything. but instead of closing this spread now or rolling to Oct now, im going to keep it on, the short calls will provide me a huge hedge to the downside for the rest of Sep opex.. i anticipate having to roll up to Oct in a few weeks, would like to gain at least 10points in the roll, maybe 15. might have to pay a bit to do so. but these new strike levels will give me good levels to shoot against for new credit put spreads when the time comes. also these new higher strikes will also have added time decay in them as well..the best time to roll forward to get the math working for you is if you can wait for a good size down day..might even get a 20point roll to higher strike for flat or slight credit, if that happens and i can roll for 20points higher i will do so early. rolling on a up day especially a gap up day is not the best time to do it.

   so no real downside to holding the diagonals longer, but get that huge downside hedge, still some chumpchange time decay.. as we all know, stocks go up , stocks go down.. alot can happen till Jan2014 opex for the Leaps

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Friday, August 24, 2012

$FFIV setup

will be watching for this next week after todays opex, am long via DITM Leaps... i dont like doing unhedged credit call spreads but since i have the Leaps i will price this out. if FFIV can rebound a few bucks and get back to the top end of the channel its working in , i will look at credit call spreads right at/above the 200day moving average..not paying much premium here but if stock rallies a bit i will look at it again... other option is my usual straight Leap covered call.. setting alert at 102 to get on watch list.


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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

CLOSING - the $CF position

12 oct - stock down 15 bucks in last 2 weeks. with a week to go before opex i closed the 230/235 credit call spreads at .07 . if only every roll turned out like this.. these were originally 225/230's from sep that i rolled up and out for a credit.. so after 2 months about .63 profit per.. also since stock has been weak and losing the 50day rather easily i closed the 195/200 credit put spreads at .25 . these were the bottom of the condor. i dont think its going that low by opex but no need to be a hero for .25cents with my hedge taken off. these were about at 50% gain, so now like i posted yesterday im ok with a pullback to get to the 202 area..any new spreads to be at/below the 200 day so target the 180/185 for Nov. , earnings look to be at end of Oct


25sep - stock has pulled back about 8bucks since rolling the call credit spreads to Oct.. today with stock near 216 i condored the position by adding the credit put spreads.. keeping the strikes both under the 50day and small support line near 203ish... so added Oct 195/200 credit put spreads at .51 today..could have gotten another dime at least near end of day.. would have liked to be at the 190 level again but the premium at that level was not good enough. at time of entry the spread had an 87% probability of max profit at opex.

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13sep - impressive move in the market last few days including CF. going to adjust my on going strategy of holding credit spreads till near opex and turn it more into a roll out when threatened strategy. by rolling a bit earlier i will still be able to roll to next higher strikes and get a credit and gain that extra month vs shitting bricks for rest of Sep opex hoping stock does not move 1-2bucks against me. if i wait till day of or day prior to roll i would likely have to increase the lot size to roll which i do not want to do.. so rolled the credit call spreads to the Oct 230/235 for additional .30 credit, same size. also obviously closed out the Sep 185/190 credit put spreads at .05 prior to rolling the calls so no added margin needed. if stock pulls back i will look to collar the possition again. as a minimum under the 50day but would like that 190 level again.


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4sep - added call spreads to the credit put spreads to make position an iron condor.

Sell to open Sep 225/230 call credit spreads at .40

the 225 level is above the all time high for the stock. the spread has an 87%probability of max profit at opex.



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8/22 - CF pulling back a bit from recent alltime high. back to old resistence becomes support line near 209.. also lines up with the rising trendline.

Sell to open SEP 185/190 credit put spreads at .60

the 190strike level is right at the support line from last month, also its under the 50day moving average. at time of entry this spread had an 86% probability of max profit at opex according to Trademonsters Analyse tab. have a hedge in place from a previous trade, the Nov205/190 bull put spread


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Monday, August 20, 2012

next $AAPL setup

big move in last few trading days. new highs after breaking that high at 644ish from april. took profits on credit put spread today. now will be watching for a pullback to the old high..resistence becomes support..if that holds will price out spreads then and see where they are at..people acting like they just heard iphone5 is coming..seems a bit frothy here. no hurry to jump back in. setting intial alert at 650 to get on radar. the 50day is now right at 600.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

$MA Iron Condor entry

i rarely enter iron condors from the get go, preferring credit put spreads so for this one i will go a small size.
Sell to open the Sep395/400 - 460/465 Iron Condor at $1.05 .. the puts are underneath recent lows near 405 and also underneath the rising 200 day moving average..the calls are right above the closing alltime high from May and above recent highs near 450.. Trademonster analyse tab has this iron condor at 75% probability of max profit at opex

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Wednesday, August 15, 2012

8/15 Fast Money Web Extra $WMT $GAP $DLTR

on tonights web extra , mike murphy and karen talk some retailers . good discussion if you into these names which i am not , heres the clip web extra .. in an unusual turn of events at the end, its karen that takes the discussion off the rails with the awkward question to the Ironman.






CLOSING $AAPL credit put spread entry and strategy

20 aug - stock up 30points since entry and this credit put spread has gained over 50% of its max profit in a few trading days so im taking profits..still have 4+ weeks left for SEP opex so will look to reenter new credit put spreads on a pullback, plenty of time
Buy to close 595/600 SEP credit put spreads at .40 for 62% gain

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15aug- ive posted this strategy several times but will do so again in abbreviated format.. i currently have jan2014 DITM calls and Sep 600 and 610 short calls (diagonal spreads) . the 2014 calls get ignored since i will hold those long term.. so the 600/610 short calls will be used as a hedge to any credit put spreads. as of this second , the 600short call is worth about $3500each, 610 going for $2800 each.. so worst case if stock closes below 600 on opex day i keep that premium and use it to offset any losses on a credit put spread.
    seeing that i have 600short calls, that is the highest level i want to take a credit put spread, as in the 595/600 level.. 600level is the psychological support level, also the low for august level, and the 50day moving average will be above 600 in a few days for added support. the Trademonster analyse tab shows the 595/600 credit put spread to have a 77% probability of max profit at time of entry. you can pick strikes a little lower but since ive got that hedge from the short calls im going for a little more premium since it still meets my 75%+ probability cutoff for credit spreads

Sell to open Sep595/600 credit put spreads at $1.05

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Tuesday, August 14, 2012

8/14 Fast Money Web Extra $HD

tonights web extra talks a bit about homebuilders, stephanie offers up a few names, tim talks home depot, heres the link web extra




Named by Barron’s as, “Best for Options Traders” 3 years running, tradeMONSTER is a powerful online trading platform for active stock and option traders who demand professional grade online trading tools, superior customer support and extensive investing education.

Are you in the wrong ETF $VIX $VXX $SPY $DBA

pretty good segment on fast money if you are in the VIX , DBA, SPY , heres the clip fast money clip

like ive said before, someone let me know when the VXX does a reverse split so i can buy a put spread on that loser.





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Monday, August 13, 2012

8/13 Fast Money Web Extra - $VIX

after a 2 week hiatus , fast money is back on the air. in tonights fast money, Doc J talks about the VIX .. i dont follow it and i think its too overfollowed and overreported on cnbc. i recommend you focus instead on the individual volitlity of each stock you have.. any VIX type product seems to be a poor trade for the retail investor. here is the web extra VIX web extra




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FFIV setup for entry

F5 was threatening a breakout last week near 104..off a bit from there. im watching for a small continued pullback to test the 50day.. if that happens i will be pricing out credit put spreads below the bottom of the channel . so the 80/85 is likely, setting alert at 98 . trademonster analyse tab shows this spread to be 80%+ probability of max profit at opex right now

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Thursday, August 9, 2012

another $CF setup for entry

CF strong after an initial sideways move after earnings. apparently farmers are fertilizing dry fields.. a crop report is coming out tomorrow i believe so expect some movement off of that. CF breaking out now and thats getting me looking at new spreads since the selloff doesnt appear to be happening.. been working within a channel for a few weeks so i am looking at strikes at/below the channel..the 50day is rising quickly so it will be at bottom of channel to add support as well.. first spread im looking at is the 185/190 for SEP. Trademonster analyse tab show it to have 85% probability of max profit at opex right now.. premium is good ..in the .70 range now . will see how it moves on crop report though first

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another $AAPL setup

another setup im looking at for Apple is backed up by some fundamentals. stock is still struggling to breakout from the 620 level.. upcoming events for the Sep opex cycle will include the accidental / intentional "leaking" of the next iphone, the ramp up to the iphone, the cnbc constant talk about the iphone as the announcement draws closer, the parade of heads on cnbc talking about the iphone and how many it will sell before christmas, maybe even a china mobil rumor or news.. all this IMO will give some positive support to the stock, with the usual ups and downs along the way. and of course we are in the time of year where stocks tend to do well. ideally id like to be at/below the 570 level..the lows from the earnings selloff.. but also i am liking a level at/below the 50day moving average.
   remember in a previous post about having short calls from diagonals as a hedge..because i do indeed have short calls at 610 for sep, im liking this 50day level more..to be right underneath it for the strikes.. gravy is the hedge from the short calls.. so ill be looking at the 585/590 level.. going for over $1.00 now and quick glance at the Trademonster Analyse tab shows it to be about 78%probability of max profit at opex.

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Wednesday, August 8, 2012

closing - $PCLN credit put spread entry

21 sep - let this go the whole way and will expire at max profit today. never did pull the trigger to get into a bull call spread along with these credit put spreads.

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8aug - Priceline got crushed on guidance as we all know. surprisingly tight trading range today. expected it to whip around. no good defined support levels to shoot against for strikes so have to just base selections on delta of the strikes, keeping in mind my target delta range is in the 15-20 range for puts..not always but most of the time. so with stock near 570 i entered into the SEP 505/510 credit put spread for .80 credit. Trademonster analyze tab shows this spread to have a 84% probability of max profit at opex. bid /asks for priceline have always been wide .. .60/1.00 type wide .. i pick an amount near the midpoint and put in a limit order , if after lunch it will always be a AON order.. plenty of time till SEP opex so if stock rebounds on positive europe headline i will look to exit if i can get 40-50% of the max profit...tougher with that wide spread though.

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$AAPL chart and setup for SEP entry

what ill be looking for if the market / this stock pulls back.. would like to see a pullback closer to the 600 psychological level / 50day moving average area.. if it hits that area i will look to enter new credit put spreads targeting strikes at/below the 570 level which was the low from the post earnings selloff.. setting alert at 610 to get on the radar.

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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Iron Condor ahead of earnings?


Just when you think you have it all figured out selling that Iron condor ahead of earnings.. BLAMM





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$PCLN for earnings

going to be another one im just watching for earnings. options are pricing in a 50point move.. calenders are a bit rich . Expedia had decent numbers. Priceline gets 60% of revenues from europe so says Fastmoney. who know was will happen, going to be about the guidance im sure.. a 50point selloff gets the stock right near the lower bollinder band. if that happens ill be pricing out some credit put spreads. obvious strike level to shoot against is the 600 area which goes back a few months. bid/asks have always been wide on priceline so always use limit orders. my paper trade model diagonal spread is currently holding the weekly 670short call fyi, see the paper trade model here -->PCLN paper trade model

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Monday, August 6, 2012

$MA setup for a SEP entry

mastercard is surprisingly not participating on these up days..flat on fridays big day, down afew bucks today. getting to be about that time to start looking at the next month for entries, if stock continues to pull back to near 408 level where there is some support, i will price out some credit put spreads for SEP. the obvious level to be at/below on strikes is the 390 level, will see where the probabilities and deltas are at that time, suspect any strike i choose will be a bit below 390. setting alert for 412 to get on radar

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$CF chart for earnings

nothing really jumping out at me for an earnings trade on CF..still bouncing around the resistence area near 202ish. IV on weeklies and even Aug's are not that elevated to be able to put on a calender spread.. options are pricing in about a $10 move . call fly might work but didnt look interesting either. i would guess a good earnings number and small up move on stock. so will be just watching this time. id like to see some type of selloff to be able to enter a credit put spread..will be looking for the levels near the moving averages.. probably be a SEP spread but will price out AUG just in case if that down move comes.

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Friday, August 3, 2012

closing - $V credit put spread entry

21 sep - another one expiring at max profit. going to need some type of selloff to juice the premiums a bit to get into this again since its had a decent move up since this trade was put on. will keep on watchlist and wait for a pullback

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3aug - saw an IBD tweet about Visa yesterday that got me looking at it again, kind of dropped off my radar since i have been watching Mastercard so much..the chart is kind of busy.. but you will see that the stock has been in a good uptrend since June, recently hit new high with it threatening it again today on a big up day for the SPY, its trading above the 50day moving average which is always preferred. since visa is not a big move like PCLN its option premiums are going to be lower so im going to need to go to SEP to get some decent premium.. there is some weak support near 122 from week ago to get under, there is the rising 50day to get under and some stronger support near 120.. so i will go right there for my strikes..right at the 120. earnings were good as well..

Sell to open the SEP 115/120 credit put spreads for .60

Trademonster analysize tab showed this spread to have a probability of max profit at 85% at time of entry.

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Thursday, August 2, 2012

CLOSING the $AAPL credit put spread entry

3 aug - big SPY up day and Apple moving up to 617ish gave me a good opportunity to tak off this spread from yesterday. again, one of my guidelines is that if a credit spread gets 40-50% of its max profit potential within 1-3 days i take profits.. high probability that i can reenter again as stock moves up and down. 2 times in an opex cycle is common, three times is harder to come by..

Buy to close the Aug 565/570 credit put spread at .17 for about 66% of max profit in one day

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2aug - SPY down 20 or so on draghi no action and AAPL dipped to near 600 again.. a rapid selloff down to the 50day would have been ideal.. but with the dividend hitting next week im assuming stock is range bound.. so will use the the 570 level this time..that was the max level that the bears could push the stock down to after earnings.. also will be under the 50day moving average

Sell to open the 565/570 Aug credit put spreads at .50

Trademonster analysize tab show this spread to have a 90% probability of max profit at opex at the time of entry with stock around 603. additionally since i have diagonal spreads as well.. my short 605's give me an added hedge if stock does drop (as in the short calls will expire at max profit..offsetting any losses on the credit put spread)

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ECB meeting

some footage of inside the ECB meeting