16mar -
this is a 1/3rd setup, 1/3rd gut, 1/3rd fundamental trade. EOG will continue to be strong along with oil prices is the fundamental, gut is ive been looking for an entry, missed a good one near 110 expecting at 50day test, so today alot of energy stocks were up. EOG got right near resistence during day. perfect setup would be to wait for break above 120 high from last month but would not have decent premium or levels to shoot against at that level..so im getting in a little early. earnings will be after Apr opex. despite not having the perfect entry setup i will still need to have the required probabilities in order to enter..so using the Apr 105/110 credit put spread. the 110 level lines up perfectly with the low from selloff last week and is the 50day moving average which is rising and will act as support going forward.. Trademonster shows this spread to be 80% probability of max profit. so i have 2 of the 3 preferred trade setups working... 1) good TA entry -- probably not perfect 2) probability of max profit at 75% or higher --check 3) one or more support levels to be at/below --check.. support line and 50day.
16mar - Sold Apr 105/110 credit put spreads for .71 x 10 for $710 credit
