Wednesday, August 22, 2012

CLOSING - the $CF position

12 oct - stock down 15 bucks in last 2 weeks. with a week to go before opex i closed the 230/235 credit call spreads at .07 . if only every roll turned out like this.. these were originally 225/230's from sep that i rolled up and out for a credit.. so after 2 months about .63 profit per.. also since stock has been weak and losing the 50day rather easily i closed the 195/200 credit put spreads at .25 . these were the bottom of the condor. i dont think its going that low by opex but no need to be a hero for .25cents with my hedge taken off. these were about at 50% gain, so now like i posted yesterday im ok with a pullback to get to the 202 area..any new spreads to be at/below the 200 day so target the 180/185 for Nov. , earnings look to be at end of Oct

25sep - stock has pulled back about 8bucks since rolling the call credit spreads to Oct.. today with stock near 216 i condored the position by adding the credit put spreads.. keeping the strikes both under the 50day and small support line near 203ish... so added Oct 195/200 credit put spreads at .51 today..could have gotten another dime at least near end of day.. would have liked to be at the 190 level again but the premium at that level was not good enough. at time of entry the spread had an 87% probability of max profit at opex.


13sep - impressive move in the market last few days including CF. going to adjust my on going strategy of holding credit spreads till near opex and turn it more into a roll out when threatened strategy. by rolling a bit earlier i will still be able to roll to next higher strikes and get a credit and gain that extra month vs shitting bricks for rest of Sep opex hoping stock does not move 1-2bucks against me. if i wait till day of or day prior to roll i would likely have to increase the lot size to roll which i do not want to do.. so rolled the credit call spreads to the Oct 230/235 for additional .30 credit, same size. also obviously closed out the Sep 185/190 credit put spreads at .05 prior to rolling the calls so no added margin needed. if stock pulls back i will look to collar the possition again. as a minimum under the 50day but would like that 190 level again.


4sep - added call spreads to the credit put spreads to make position an iron condor.

Sell to open Sep 225/230 call credit spreads at .40

the 225 level is above the all time high for the stock. the spread has an 87%probability of max profit at opex.


8/22 - CF pulling back a bit from recent alltime high. back to old resistence becomes support line near 209.. also lines up with the rising trendline.

Sell to open SEP 185/190 credit put spreads at .60

the 190strike level is right at the support line from last month, also its under the 50day moving average. at time of entry this spread had an 86% probability of max profit at opex according to Trademonsters Analyse tab. have a hedge in place from a previous trade, the Nov205/190 bull put spread

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