Thursday, November 22, 2012

$CF condor

stock held the 200 day like a champ, about that time i sold the 170/175 credit put spreads, stock now comfortably higher. as it moved higher i condored the position with the 220/225 credit call spreads.. if putting those on today i would keep the strikes above the all time higher but at the time i was wanting to stay above the 50day moving average..if the stock continues to rally , especially crossing the 50day, i will consider taking profits in the credit put spreads and rolling them up to higher strikes for some added premium, but still staying at/below the 200day.

$AAPL credit call spreads

in hindsight it looks like the support level from a few months ago held on a closing basis.. .the level everyone was looking at. had that big up day after tagging that support line and i sold some 600/605 DEC call credit spreads. didnt get in near the high of the day, would have been some juicy premium if i would have hit that but not much time to get away to drive to a hotspot since the trademonster iphone app is dogshit. regardless, i picked the 600 level to be above the 200day moving average which is rising slightly.. at time of entry the probability of max profit was 85% i believe.. my hedge is my 2014 and 2015 Leaps.. so even if the stock continues to rally up to 605 its ok..will still be a net gain plus will be a good sentiment shift going forward.. if stock pulls back some i will possibly look to add credit put spreads to condor this position.. will keep strikes definately below the 520ish support line but likely below the low of the day from few days ago..506 i think it was.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

$AAPL setup

everyone is probably watching the same level on aaple. on fundamentals alone its a decent time to add to a position. will be looking at adding some DITM Leaps if it tests the 520ish level, will be looking at 2015 and adding in some Dec ratio spreads on top of it for a rebound. yes i have other Leaps that im holding and that are underwater. doesnt mean that you stop looking for additional entries.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

did you prepare for the hurricane or blow it off?

since it seems that all the white folks living in northeast have never experienced a hurricane before and didnt take minimal steps necessary to prepare like the authorities said, we will use my house as an example... your house floating away is one thing, but suffering because you have no power, no food and no gasoline is another

didnt stockpile enough food beforehand thinking you would just pick some up later? look at all those protein drinks

low carb protein drink 4packs, rows of tuna on the left
more protein drinks, bottled water
did you see all the footage of those poor saps standing in line looking for gas (hint: you need to have the gas BEFORE the storm hits.. the gas stations will likely not have power either to run the pumps). i have 20 5-gallon jugs..i keep five full all the time and when a storm comes this way i take the truck and fill up the rest. if we dont lose power i just pour it into the gas tank of the cars. have generator and a backup generator to the back up generator. (dont forget to get 3-4 50ft extension cords..long enough to reach your refrigerator, TV, and portable AC)
couple of cool things to get that i have but did not need to use during hurricane Ike and 6 day power outage:

- plastic cord and bag of clothes pins in case i needed to hang wet laundry in backyard
- a siphon pump  - so you can suck the gas out of your car and put into jugs if it comes to that.. i drove around after the storm and saw some doofus had one end of his garden hose stuffed down the gas nozzle of his car and was trying to suck the gas out with his mouth..good luck with that. got mine at walmart
get an electric skillet to cook with using your generator. if you have a BBQ grill, fill up the propane and get 1-2 extra full cylanders.. this was 5years ago before i was super lowcarb but i was eating bacon, eggs, and pancakes on my skillet and grilling up steaks in my garage on the BBQ. i ate better after the storm than i did before. get a power strip if you dont have one so when you run the generator you can recharge mutiple cell phones at once

if you are going to get a generator , get a portable AC as well, store it in the back of closet till you need it..unless you enjoy 100degree weather..mine looks similar to this..i call it R2D2..has wheels on the bottom
you spend so much money on either beer, cigarettes, starbucks, and other nonesense.. how about spending some of it to prepare yourself and your family to survive a storm.. im not talking about if your house gets ripped off its foundation im talking about what most people have happen to them and thats loss of power. did you see that footage of people climbing thru piles of garbage looking for food? could be you

Saturday, October 20, 2012

$CF setup

20 oct - trying to be disciplined on the entry for this one. earnings look to be on 5nov now . would really like to see it test the 202-203 area and then i would like to get into a credit put spread at/below the 190 level.. some support there and the 20 day matched up to it nicely. on my watchlist. might take an entry on this before earnings.. will see

$AAPL Nov credit put spread entry

20 oct - crazy month for AAPL , like i tweeted, i took the loss on the Oct credit put spread instead of rolling for the sake of rolling and having to signficantly increase the lot size.. instead i will use that buying power that would have been needed for that roll and reenter a new credit put spread at better strikes for november..yes, i know earnings are this week. premiums are juiced because of the recent down moves and i wanted to get in on that. sold the Nov 565/570 credit put spreads at $1.10 . the 570 is right at some support from last earnings and is below the 200day.. best case the stock rallies into the mini ipad release and/or earnings and i will be looking at condoring this position at least above the 50 day. depending where the stock is on day of earnings i will be selling some OTM weekly short calls to go against my 2015 LEAPS and likely use a portion of that income on some cheap put calenders or put flys. this spread was about a 75% probability of max profit at time of entry.. note: if the stock rallies decently into the ipad / earnings events i may just take profits too vs condoring .. will make judgement call based on stock price at that time.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

personal update

16 oct - in the interest of transparency, to answer a few comments to "where ive been" or "how come you dont tweet anymore" ... a few people that i correspond with regularly know that i previously worked for a homebuilder and like many was layed off in during the credit crisis, thus began my full time trading career.. after hearing from a few buddies still in the industry about how hiring as begun again i took a shot and sent a resume to a homebuilder that had a new project starting up about 10 minutes from my house. given the choice of sitting at the house and doing my usual unsexy, uninteresting diagonal spreads and credit spreads sporadically vs legitimatically working, bringing in 70k+ starting, 401k, medical, etc AND doing diagonal spreads / credit spreads while at work, its a clear choice. seeing how im a badass builder, i have time for both.. so long story short.. 3 days after resume, took a preemployment aptitude test, 2 days later interviewed, 2 days later got an offer.. so been on the job for 2 days, getting the internet / computer situation squared away (might even have to get an iphone to be able to check stocks while i walk around) . will continue to post as needed but short term will be sporadic.. the trading is still happening but need to prioritize my time during the day and catch up on tweets / replies during the p.m.
    just wanted to share this in case you give a shit and not up and disappear for long stretches like some others on twitter or fake my way and pretend to be living it up during the day. (fyi, what you hear about new homebuilding on CNBC is no bullshit... legit labor shortage out there (plumbers, brickers, insulation crews, etc) but closings are targeted to be double next year vs this year. will look at some deep in the money LEAPS in the homebuilding sector when i get some leisure time.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Rip your face off rally?

an overused expression, mainly by the fast money crew is a "rip your face off rally" .. i propose that instead of that, start using a "punch to the nuts" move. can be used for either bullish or bearish






Wednesday, October 10, 2012

$CF levels for NOV

10 oct - noting that earnings are at the end of this month...the levels im watching on CF for a possible new credit put spread for NOV... its testing the 50day now but has some support near 200 and additional support near 190.. ideal spread would be to get at/below that 190 level which will probably be under the 200day as well.. i still have a Nov205/190 put spread going so that would be a hedge against any new credit put spreads..since i have that hedge i might do a rare credit put spread entry prior to earnings to take advantage of the juiced up premiums.. but will not make that move till right before depending on where the stock is at that time..might be at 190 then so entering a spread now would not be advised.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Book reviews and the Zero Dark Thirty bin Laden movie

The Bin Laden movie is coming out in a few days from the director of The Hurt Locker so wanted to add my two cents, below are my previous comments about No Easy Day. There is another decent book from the author of Black Hawk Down, its "The Finish"

if you are only able to read one book prior to seeing the movie, then No Easy Day is far supirior. The Finish focuses more on the background of Bin Laden and the Obama administration with only the final 10% of the book talking about the actual raid. Confirms what i already knew that almost anything coming out of the White House Press office is bullshit and Mark Bowden points out. so long story short its an ok read but if you are more interested in the actual raid, read the book from a guy that was actually on the raid. looking forward to seeing the movie.

just wanted to make a few comments about the book "No Easy Day" since i just finished reading it in one day. picked it up at library yesterday and finished it up today. first off, that B.S. you read and heard about the author disclosing classified or sensitive information is just that .. B.S. .. there is no classified information in the book.  i wonder if the critics and media even read it.
    having read several other book written by SEALS i was expecting the usual first half of the book to be about BUDS, their childhood, etc and then at the tail end it gets to the good stuff about some of their missions. not so on this one, gets right into it in the first chapter then backtracks to some previous missions he has been on and some of the requirements of getting selected to even get into SEAL team 6 and finishes up with a great play by play of the Osama raid by great diagrams of the target house. i remember the initial news reports in the first few days and as usual the reporters have no clue what they are talking about. bottom line its one of those books you want to read where you get started, cant put it down, and when you look up its 3 hours later. if you are also a veteran or just interested in the SEALS its a great read.



Friday, September 21, 2012

update - condoring the $AAPL position

3 oct - yesterday i closed the 750/755 call credit spreads at .07 for some chump change, in hindsight it was way out of the money but im experimenting with using the aaplpain open interest metrics into strike selections.  stock made a nice recovery yesterday and today. was able to reenter some credit spreads this morning, the Oct 710/715 credit call spreads at .60 to recondor the position. the strikes are above the recent highs in the stock, was about 85% probability of max profit at opex when i was looking at them earlier.

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27sep - was looking at condoring this position when stock was near its highs but just couldnt pull the trigger. would have been good winner during the recent pullback.. now with stock having a decent up day and near 678 im going to pull the trigger. ive been reading more of Aapl_pains postings and studying his Open interest charts , here is his chart from his website AAPL Pains site .. hard to see but the large blue spike indicates the highest call open interest at the 750 strike for Oct..his thesis is that i believe its 80% probability that stock does not go beyond the highest open interests of each put and call at opex...has had credible track record from what ive seen.. in order to get some added crumbs and since no added margin is required i sold the Oct 750/755 credit call spreads at .25 today..91%probability of max profit at opex per trademonster analysis tab..its way out there which is what i wanted...not some market timing call im trying to make just playing the percentages..mine and applepains. also give stock plenty of room to run on any hype since im long via other strategies.


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21 sep - entered into new credit put spreads yesterday. even got an unlikely fill above the "mark" of the bid ask. should be alot of bullish headlines for the next quarter for Apple and holiday season starting. keeping the short strike right below the support line at 657ish, the 50day is rising quickly and will be above the short strike in week or so.. at time of entry the spread had an 83% probability of max profit at opex.

Sell to open Oct 650/655 credit put spreads at .80 credit

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Tuesday, September 18, 2012

closing the trade and new setup: $FFIV credit put spread entry

20 Oct - with stock closing near 95, this credit spread expired at full profit of Oct opex. with earnings on 24th, id like to see a pullback to test the 90 level, might get lucky and still have some premium at/below the 70 level.. will also look at a cheap put fly or put calender for an earnings play.


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18 sep - better to be lucky than good. stock was breaking out in a.m. yesterday and i entered into the Oct 85/90 credit put spreads at .52 credit. keeping the short strike right at the bottom of the channel, 84%probability of max profit at opex. big move today. 112ish is some resistance from the 200 day.. might look to condor this position if it tags the 200day and can not break thru

Monday, September 17, 2012

update to the $AAPL diagonal entry

26 sep - will aaple now near 665 and the oct 715 short call worth about 3.40 you have a choice..to sit tight for the rest of Oct opex and collect that 3.40 or see if you can come up with another strategy for the remainder of the 24 days till opex that will make you more money than that $340. so having captured about 70% of that short call premium i bought back the short call at 3.40 and entered into a weekly 670/680 call ratio spread for 1.05..max profit is a 680 pin on friday.. on friday based on where the stock is i will look to enter another weekly ratio spread for next week.. the strategy is to get that upside exposure for a rebound and do it cheaply. i will be successfull if this weeks ratio, next weeks ratio , and the following weeks possible ratio profit in excess of that $340 i could have made by doing nothing. remember the daily / weekly move of the stock is irrelevant for the Leap since i will hold that regardless..have few more months in 2012..all of 2013..all of 2014 to do short calls and ratios...besides, gene munster said its going up

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17 sep - entered a new diagonal spread on apple today. was expecting the 2015 options to come on the board next monday and just stumbled onto them today. stock broke to a new high friday and followed thru today. there are two camps out there, the camp that swears to not buy a stock when it hits a new high because its too strong and wait for a pullback. and then theres the Buy on a new high, buy high sell higher, only way it goes up is to keep making new highs camp.. thats the camp im in. so i bought the 2015 630 call and sold the Oct 715 short call against it. total debit was $153.50.. not going to mess around with weeklies this first month, this far out i wanted to get at least $1200 in credit from the short call. earnings are usually the tuesday after opex so ideally this one expires at max profit and then sell another short call weekly that will be juiced up for earnings. will see how it looks then. remember my strategy on diagonals, the day to day, week to week movement of the stock is irrelevant and the 2015 Leap will be held regardless of what happens. trying to capture the premium of the short calls. the stock taking off from here till Oct opex is ok and not a bad problem to have, if you put these options into a profit calculator, like the analysis tab on Trademonster, even a move to 770 is still profitable. perfect scenario would off course be a pin at 715 at Oct opex. note...the quickest way to screw up a diagonal is to buy that Leap too close to At the money to try to get cute and pay less.

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Tuesday, September 11, 2012

$FFIV setup

11sep - watching for the following levels for a possible entry back into credit put spreads. set your alerts.. been working in the 90-105 range for few months now.. so will like to see either a breakout at say 104ish, with spreads at 90 or below... or flip side if it tests and holds the 90 level again.. price out lower credit put spreads if that happens. keep eye out for earnings date for oct too

Monday, September 10, 2012

Closing - $AAPL entry and strategy for rest of SEP

21 sep - the Sep620/625's will expire today at max profit, took profits previously at .19 for the Sep630/645's..these credit spreads paid for the bull call spread, the Sep 680/690..which i took profits too soon expecting a pullback..closed that at 6.40. nevertheless..all three were profitable

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10sep - finally got back into some $AAPL credit put spreads again today with the down 8 morning. missed a few other entries by getting no fills because of AON orders. no technical trigger to enter today except stock finally had decent intra day pullback to juice the put premiums a bit. wanted to get into a position ahead of the apple event.

Sold to open Sep630/635 credit put spreads at .52 - 88%probability of max profit
Sold to open Sep620/625 credit put spreads at .30 - 93%probability of max profit

the 50day moving average is rising quickly and will be at 635 in a few days, so i wanted to be under that level, also the old resistence becomes support level from 640ish..wanted to be under that.

Current positioning: still have those diagonals with way ITM short calls, been holding them in case of some type of selloff, will hold at least till after the apple event. if a selloff hits will look to roll up a few strikes to OCT. if not then will still roll up in Oct but will need to pay a bit to gain $10-$15 in strike levels, but will give me good levels to shoot against for Oct credit put spreads.
- picked up Sep680/690 call spread last week to position for bullish movement off of event, mentally used todays credit put spreads to pay for it.
- have a few Sep 670/660/650 cheap put flys as well

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Thursday, August 30, 2012

$FFIV chart and setup

can that 50 day moving average get any more flat..still working within a channel for last few weeks. 50day is holding as support for the moment but the levels id like to enter for credit put spreads , the premium is less than id like. now would really need a further pullback to bottom of this channel near 90 before entering new spreads. its down 5% today on a down less than 1% market day.. sells off to low 90's might be able to get a spread at/below the Oct lows near 70ish...will also look at OCT when pricing those out.. setting alert at 92 to get on radar.

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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

$VMW chart and setup

been watching VMW along time. right now its fighting with the 50day moving average, its off about 10bucks in last week or so while general market has been sideways. VMW has always been a tough one to get decent premium on credit put spreads but then again it has $2.50 wide strikes. might get an opportunity for an entry if it continues to pullback and/or the Sep/oct market correction comes. not comfortable taking a position here but if it were to pullback closer to the fat crayon support line near 80 i will price something out, either credit put spreads or possibly cash secured puts / risk reversals. setting alert at 82 to get on radar.

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Monday, August 27, 2012

those $AAPL diagonals

right now you are thinking AAPL is never going down again.. all those positive catalysts coming up..the stock has been up 100points in a month or so.. my Jan2014/Sep 600 and 610 short calls are way in the money. heres my thought process. Sep is historically the worst month of the year per cnbc, everyone on one side of the boat again on AAPL also. the deltas of the short calls are right about 90 right now so i still will get a little bit of time decay for rest of SEP. Stock has the ability to sell off like it did in april /may, could do so again either on product announcement disappointment, general market selloff, EU issues..anything. but instead of closing this spread now or rolling to Oct now, im going to keep it on, the short calls will provide me a huge hedge to the downside for the rest of Sep opex.. i anticipate having to roll up to Oct in a few weeks, would like to gain at least 10points in the roll, maybe 15. might have to pay a bit to do so. but these new strike levels will give me good levels to shoot against for new credit put spreads when the time comes. also these new higher strikes will also have added time decay in them as well..the best time to roll forward to get the math working for you is if you can wait for a good size down day..might even get a 20point roll to higher strike for flat or slight credit, if that happens and i can roll for 20points higher i will do so early. rolling on a up day especially a gap up day is not the best time to do it.

   so no real downside to holding the diagonals longer, but get that huge downside hedge, still some chumpchange time decay.. as we all know, stocks go up , stocks go down.. alot can happen till Jan2014 opex for the Leaps

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Friday, August 24, 2012

$FFIV setup

will be watching for this next week after todays opex, am long via DITM Leaps... i dont like doing unhedged credit call spreads but since i have the Leaps i will price this out. if FFIV can rebound a few bucks and get back to the top end of the channel its working in , i will look at credit call spreads right at/above the 200day moving average..not paying much premium here but if stock rallies a bit i will look at it again... other option is my usual straight Leap covered call.. setting alert at 102 to get on watch list.


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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

CLOSING - the $CF position

12 oct - stock down 15 bucks in last 2 weeks. with a week to go before opex i closed the 230/235 credit call spreads at .07 . if only every roll turned out like this.. these were originally 225/230's from sep that i rolled up and out for a credit.. so after 2 months about .63 profit per.. also since stock has been weak and losing the 50day rather easily i closed the 195/200 credit put spreads at .25 . these were the bottom of the condor. i dont think its going that low by opex but no need to be a hero for .25cents with my hedge taken off. these were about at 50% gain, so now like i posted yesterday im ok with a pullback to get to the 202 area..any new spreads to be at/below the 200 day so target the 180/185 for Nov. , earnings look to be at end of Oct


25sep - stock has pulled back about 8bucks since rolling the call credit spreads to Oct.. today with stock near 216 i condored the position by adding the credit put spreads.. keeping the strikes both under the 50day and small support line near 203ish... so added Oct 195/200 credit put spreads at .51 today..could have gotten another dime at least near end of day.. would have liked to be at the 190 level again but the premium at that level was not good enough. at time of entry the spread had an 87% probability of max profit at opex.

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13sep - impressive move in the market last few days including CF. going to adjust my on going strategy of holding credit spreads till near opex and turn it more into a roll out when threatened strategy. by rolling a bit earlier i will still be able to roll to next higher strikes and get a credit and gain that extra month vs shitting bricks for rest of Sep opex hoping stock does not move 1-2bucks against me. if i wait till day of or day prior to roll i would likely have to increase the lot size to roll which i do not want to do.. so rolled the credit call spreads to the Oct 230/235 for additional .30 credit, same size. also obviously closed out the Sep 185/190 credit put spreads at .05 prior to rolling the calls so no added margin needed. if stock pulls back i will look to collar the possition again. as a minimum under the 50day but would like that 190 level again.


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4sep - added call spreads to the credit put spreads to make position an iron condor.

Sell to open Sep 225/230 call credit spreads at .40

the 225 level is above the all time high for the stock. the spread has an 87%probability of max profit at opex.



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8/22 - CF pulling back a bit from recent alltime high. back to old resistence becomes support line near 209.. also lines up with the rising trendline.

Sell to open SEP 185/190 credit put spreads at .60

the 190strike level is right at the support line from last month, also its under the 50day moving average. at time of entry this spread had an 86% probability of max profit at opex according to Trademonsters Analyse tab. have a hedge in place from a previous trade, the Nov205/190 bull put spread


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Monday, August 20, 2012

next $AAPL setup

big move in last few trading days. new highs after breaking that high at 644ish from april. took profits on credit put spread today. now will be watching for a pullback to the old high..resistence becomes support..if that holds will price out spreads then and see where they are at..people acting like they just heard iphone5 is coming..seems a bit frothy here. no hurry to jump back in. setting intial alert at 650 to get on radar. the 50day is now right at 600.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

$MA Iron Condor entry

i rarely enter iron condors from the get go, preferring credit put spreads so for this one i will go a small size.
Sell to open the Sep395/400 - 460/465 Iron Condor at $1.05 .. the puts are underneath recent lows near 405 and also underneath the rising 200 day moving average..the calls are right above the closing alltime high from May and above recent highs near 450.. Trademonster analyse tab has this iron condor at 75% probability of max profit at opex

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Wednesday, August 15, 2012

8/15 Fast Money Web Extra $WMT $GAP $DLTR

on tonights web extra , mike murphy and karen talk some retailers . good discussion if you into these names which i am not , heres the clip web extra .. in an unusual turn of events at the end, its karen that takes the discussion off the rails with the awkward question to the Ironman.






CLOSING $AAPL credit put spread entry and strategy

20 aug - stock up 30points since entry and this credit put spread has gained over 50% of its max profit in a few trading days so im taking profits..still have 4+ weeks left for SEP opex so will look to reenter new credit put spreads on a pullback, plenty of time
Buy to close 595/600 SEP credit put spreads at .40 for 62% gain

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15aug- ive posted this strategy several times but will do so again in abbreviated format.. i currently have jan2014 DITM calls and Sep 600 and 610 short calls (diagonal spreads) . the 2014 calls get ignored since i will hold those long term.. so the 600/610 short calls will be used as a hedge to any credit put spreads. as of this second , the 600short call is worth about $3500each, 610 going for $2800 each.. so worst case if stock closes below 600 on opex day i keep that premium and use it to offset any losses on a credit put spread.
    seeing that i have 600short calls, that is the highest level i want to take a credit put spread, as in the 595/600 level.. 600level is the psychological support level, also the low for august level, and the 50day moving average will be above 600 in a few days for added support. the Trademonster analyse tab shows the 595/600 credit put spread to have a 77% probability of max profit at time of entry. you can pick strikes a little lower but since ive got that hedge from the short calls im going for a little more premium since it still meets my 75%+ probability cutoff for credit spreads

Sell to open Sep595/600 credit put spreads at $1.05

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Tuesday, August 14, 2012

8/14 Fast Money Web Extra $HD

tonights web extra talks a bit about homebuilders, stephanie offers up a few names, tim talks home depot, heres the link web extra




Named by Barron’s as, “Best for Options Traders” 3 years running, tradeMONSTER is a powerful online trading platform for active stock and option traders who demand professional grade online trading tools, superior customer support and extensive investing education.

Are you in the wrong ETF $VIX $VXX $SPY $DBA

pretty good segment on fast money if you are in the VIX , DBA, SPY , heres the clip fast money clip

like ive said before, someone let me know when the VXX does a reverse split so i can buy a put spread on that loser.





Named by Barron’s as, “Best for Options Traders” 3 years running, tradeMONSTER is a powerful online trading platform for active stock and option traders who demand professional grade online trading tools, superior customer support and extensive investing education.



Monday, August 13, 2012

8/13 Fast Money Web Extra - $VIX

after a 2 week hiatus , fast money is back on the air. in tonights fast money, Doc J talks about the VIX .. i dont follow it and i think its too overfollowed and overreported on cnbc. i recommend you focus instead on the individual volitlity of each stock you have.. any VIX type product seems to be a poor trade for the retail investor. here is the web extra VIX web extra




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FFIV setup for entry

F5 was threatening a breakout last week near 104..off a bit from there. im watching for a small continued pullback to test the 50day.. if that happens i will be pricing out credit put spreads below the bottom of the channel . so the 80/85 is likely, setting alert at 98 . trademonster analyse tab shows this spread to be 80%+ probability of max profit at opex right now

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Thursday, August 9, 2012

another $CF setup for entry

CF strong after an initial sideways move after earnings. apparently farmers are fertilizing dry fields.. a crop report is coming out tomorrow i believe so expect some movement off of that. CF breaking out now and thats getting me looking at new spreads since the selloff doesnt appear to be happening.. been working within a channel for a few weeks so i am looking at strikes at/below the channel..the 50day is rising quickly so it will be at bottom of channel to add support as well.. first spread im looking at is the 185/190 for SEP. Trademonster analyse tab show it to have 85% probability of max profit at opex right now.. premium is good ..in the .70 range now . will see how it moves on crop report though first

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another $AAPL setup

another setup im looking at for Apple is backed up by some fundamentals. stock is still struggling to breakout from the 620 level.. upcoming events for the Sep opex cycle will include the accidental / intentional "leaking" of the next iphone, the ramp up to the iphone, the cnbc constant talk about the iphone as the announcement draws closer, the parade of heads on cnbc talking about the iphone and how many it will sell before christmas, maybe even a china mobil rumor or news.. all this IMO will give some positive support to the stock, with the usual ups and downs along the way. and of course we are in the time of year where stocks tend to do well. ideally id like to be at/below the 570 level..the lows from the earnings selloff.. but also i am liking a level at/below the 50day moving average.
   remember in a previous post about having short calls from diagonals as a hedge..because i do indeed have short calls at 610 for sep, im liking this 50day level more..to be right underneath it for the strikes.. gravy is the hedge from the short calls.. so ill be looking at the 585/590 level.. going for over $1.00 now and quick glance at the Trademonster Analyse tab shows it to be about 78%probability of max profit at opex.

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Wednesday, August 8, 2012

closing - $PCLN credit put spread entry

21 sep - let this go the whole way and will expire at max profit today. never did pull the trigger to get into a bull call spread along with these credit put spreads.

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8aug - Priceline got crushed on guidance as we all know. surprisingly tight trading range today. expected it to whip around. no good defined support levels to shoot against for strikes so have to just base selections on delta of the strikes, keeping in mind my target delta range is in the 15-20 range for puts..not always but most of the time. so with stock near 570 i entered into the SEP 505/510 credit put spread for .80 credit. Trademonster analyze tab shows this spread to have a 84% probability of max profit at opex. bid /asks for priceline have always been wide .. .60/1.00 type wide .. i pick an amount near the midpoint and put in a limit order , if after lunch it will always be a AON order.. plenty of time till SEP opex so if stock rebounds on positive europe headline i will look to exit if i can get 40-50% of the max profit...tougher with that wide spread though.

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$AAPL chart and setup for SEP entry

what ill be looking for if the market / this stock pulls back.. would like to see a pullback closer to the 600 psychological level / 50day moving average area.. if it hits that area i will look to enter new credit put spreads targeting strikes at/below the 570 level which was the low from the post earnings selloff.. setting alert at 610 to get on the radar.

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Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Iron Condor ahead of earnings?


Just when you think you have it all figured out selling that Iron condor ahead of earnings.. BLAMM





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$PCLN for earnings

going to be another one im just watching for earnings. options are pricing in a 50point move.. calenders are a bit rich . Expedia had decent numbers. Priceline gets 60% of revenues from europe so says Fastmoney. who know was will happen, going to be about the guidance im sure.. a 50point selloff gets the stock right near the lower bollinder band. if that happens ill be pricing out some credit put spreads. obvious strike level to shoot against is the 600 area which goes back a few months. bid/asks have always been wide on priceline so always use limit orders. my paper trade model diagonal spread is currently holding the weekly 670short call fyi, see the paper trade model here -->PCLN paper trade model

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Monday, August 6, 2012

$MA setup for a SEP entry

mastercard is surprisingly not participating on these up days..flat on fridays big day, down afew bucks today. getting to be about that time to start looking at the next month for entries, if stock continues to pull back to near 408 level where there is some support, i will price out some credit put spreads for SEP. the obvious level to be at/below on strikes is the 390 level, will see where the probabilities and deltas are at that time, suspect any strike i choose will be a bit below 390. setting alert for 412 to get on radar

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$CF chart for earnings

nothing really jumping out at me for an earnings trade on CF..still bouncing around the resistence area near 202ish. IV on weeklies and even Aug's are not that elevated to be able to put on a calender spread.. options are pricing in about a $10 move . call fly might work but didnt look interesting either. i would guess a good earnings number and small up move on stock. so will be just watching this time. id like to see some type of selloff to be able to enter a credit put spread..will be looking for the levels near the moving averages.. probably be a SEP spread but will price out AUG just in case if that down move comes.

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Friday, August 3, 2012

closing - $V credit put spread entry

21 sep - another one expiring at max profit. going to need some type of selloff to juice the premiums a bit to get into this again since its had a decent move up since this trade was put on. will keep on watchlist and wait for a pullback

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3aug - saw an IBD tweet about Visa yesterday that got me looking at it again, kind of dropped off my radar since i have been watching Mastercard so much..the chart is kind of busy.. but you will see that the stock has been in a good uptrend since June, recently hit new high with it threatening it again today on a big up day for the SPY, its trading above the 50day moving average which is always preferred. since visa is not a big move like PCLN its option premiums are going to be lower so im going to need to go to SEP to get some decent premium.. there is some weak support near 122 from week ago to get under, there is the rising 50day to get under and some stronger support near 120.. so i will go right there for my strikes..right at the 120. earnings were good as well..

Sell to open the SEP 115/120 credit put spreads for .60

Trademonster analysize tab showed this spread to have a probability of max profit at 85% at time of entry.

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Thursday, August 2, 2012

CLOSING the $AAPL credit put spread entry

3 aug - big SPY up day and Apple moving up to 617ish gave me a good opportunity to tak off this spread from yesterday. again, one of my guidelines is that if a credit spread gets 40-50% of its max profit potential within 1-3 days i take profits.. high probability that i can reenter again as stock moves up and down. 2 times in an opex cycle is common, three times is harder to come by..

Buy to close the Aug 565/570 credit put spread at .17 for about 66% of max profit in one day

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2aug - SPY down 20 or so on draghi no action and AAPL dipped to near 600 again.. a rapid selloff down to the 50day would have been ideal.. but with the dividend hitting next week im assuming stock is range bound.. so will use the the 570 level this time..that was the max level that the bears could push the stock down to after earnings.. also will be under the 50day moving average

Sell to open the 565/570 Aug credit put spreads at .50

Trademonster analysize tab show this spread to have a 90% probability of max profit at opex at the time of entry with stock around 603. additionally since i have diagonal spreads as well.. my short 605's give me an added hedge if stock does drop (as in the short calls will expire at max profit..offsetting any losses on the credit put spread)

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ECB meeting

some footage of inside the ECB meeting