Monday, April 30, 2012

5/2/2012 updated comments $MA chart and setup

5/2/2012 - got as low as 440 today, might not make it down further. tone on FM seems to be bullish still. would classify this as a bullshit selloff.. will be eyeballing a June spread asks are wide as usual with mastercard, would do an AON order if trying to enter in afternoon.


mastercard had nice run last week, earnings coming up this week. so no entry till after..would like to see some type of selloff back closer to the 50day near 425. any new credit put spreads to be at/below the 405 lowfrom march.

4/30/2012 $AAPL setup and chart

not unexpected that aaple pulls back after that earnings pop. higher probability entry now is what everyone is probably looking at..a test of the 50day near 580 . levels to shoot against for new credit put spreads are the low from last week near a 550/555 or 545/550 credit put spread, or for lower risk use the 520 a 515/520 credit put spread. if that one does not have enough premium for may, price out what it pays for a June spread

Sunday, April 29, 2012

4/29/2012 $BRY chart and setup

sideways action all week, next entry if you are trading this is a break thru the 200day moving average, on above average volume preferred. then use about a $1 stop or use the fridays low as a stop if you have greater risk tolerance. i have no position

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Saturday, April 28, 2012

5/12/2012 $DNDN chart and setup

5/12 - no entry from last weeks chart/setup. now for this week would wait for a break of the 50day that it lost this week. would like to see some above average volume . would rather miss that first 10% move than take a shot here.

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5/5 - last weeks setup still intact, would not enter for a trade until a break thru this recent resistence from last week. would prefer on above average volume. use a .50/.75 cent stop if you get that breakout. would just watch till then

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4/28 - last weeks setup worked well. your next buy point is breaking the recent high, preferably on above average volume. then use a .50 or .75 stop depending on risk tolerance.

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4/28/2012 $RMBS chart and setup

not getting any prettier.. setup from last week still valid.. would wait for a break of this downtrend before stepping in. would give up that first 10% move. if it breaks trendline then use 25cent stop or 50cent if you have greater risk tolerance.

5/5/2012 $ELN chart and setup

5/5/2012 - no entry since last weeks setup, am going to still use the same level for this week and give up the first part of an up move instead of knife catching, want to see a break back above the 50day first , then move above last weeks high on above average volume before entering. being patient

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4/28 - if you are trading this name, next buy point would be breaking the high from 2days ago. use a stop right below fridays low, or below the 50 day moving average or maybe 50 / 75 cents depending on your risk tolerance.

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Friday, April 27, 2012

$GOOG setup 4/27/2012

pretty easy levels for a setp for a new credit put spread entry.. watch for a break of the 50day at 621ish.. then price out credit put spreads at/below the 590 support line from last week..also lines up with the 200day moving average.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

4/26/2012 $CHK Fast Money Web extra

desk has some discussion about CHK and the CEO activities. video here video clip
would not go long this stock but if you are inclined to play the contrarian, instead look at buying a jan2014 10call for about 8.90ish... and sell a Jun short call against it.. maybe the jun 20 or 21's to bring in some chump change income. sell short calls every month 2-3 bucks out of the money each month going forward

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

$CF chart and comments

been in a channel now for a couple weeks. breaking out of top range a little today, which would normally be a trigger to put on a credit put spread. but earnings are next thursday and Potash earnings are tomorrow. i would like any credit put spread to be at/below the 200day. on watchlist and see what POT has to say..remember that nonsense dennis gartmen said on air that farmers are using less fertilizer because they have GPS? maybe they will talk about that

easy $AAPL setup 25apr

now that earnings are out and everything is good again. there is a pretty easy level to shoot against for credit put spreads. yesterdays low near 555, you know the one where everyone was all negative.. that is the level to shoot against for any new credit put spreads. keeps spreads at/below that level. a may 550/555 credit put spread look to be at about 87% probability of max profit according to Trademonster Analyse tab.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

24 apr - $CAT Fast Money web extra

actually decent discussion on CAT since guy adami was not on the desk tonight, here is the video video clip , earnings tomorrow morning.

$GOOG entry - exp at max profit May

18may - credit spread will expire at max profit today


apr 24,had to go way back to get the whole chart in the screencap.. stock tagged and bounce off the 200day yesterday. all eyes on AAPL today of course, the 565 level is support that goes back to last year. tagged a few times and also bottom of a gap that has long since filled. Trademonster shows this has 86%probability of max profit at opex

Sell May 560/565 credit put spreads at .65

Monday, April 23, 2012

23apr Fast Money Web Extra $HD

guy adami discusses Home Depot in tonights web extra after wasting the usual first 45 seconds trying to be funny about what the date of the show is. heres the clip the clip

$PCLN levels

23apr. - getting closer to that 50day, wide intra day swings. keep any credit put spreads below the 625 level.. gap fill at 600 level would be ideal. no entry till after earnings though for me

$IBM setup

23apr - lost the 50day last week, next entry if any would be to wait for stock to drop a bit more closer to the 150day area, then would like to be at/below the 180level for any new credit put spreads. not much premium in IBM last few months, likely have other stocks to chose from first.

$VMW setup

23 apr - pulling back with market after earnings. might have an entry little bit lower testing the 50day which lines up pretty close to some recent support.. getting credit put spreads at/below the 200 day would be my target level..premiums probably not that good though.

new $FFIV setup

23apr - couple days after earnings now. stock has now fallen below the earnings gap and testing the 50day. would wait to see if it continues down a bit more to fill the gap all the way to 125ish...then maybe look at credit put spreads blow at/below the 115 level

Saturday, April 21, 2012

4-20-2012 $CWEI chart and setup

had a false breakout earlier in week, that is why using a stop is so important. now would have to see a move up a few points first and break the 50day before trying again. otherwise would avoid for now

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4/20/2012 $BRY setup and chart

last weeks setup sill valid.. now losing the weak support level from Feb lows.. buy point is still when it breaks the 200 day. avoid other wise

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4/20/2012 $DNDN chart and setup

the setup from last week worked like a champ. buying when breaking the downward trendline on thursday.. if you havent already, raise your stop to at least your purchase price. new setup below chart:

your buy point to add to this trade is when in breaks thru this near term resistence level, could even wait till a 50day break. raise stop from additional purchase if it breaks 50day

4/20/2012 $RMBS setup and chart

pretty ugly friday, breaking lower on big volume, last weeks setup still valid.. avoid for now until it breaks back above this declining trendline. ideally on above average volume, us 25-30 cent stop when entering.

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Friday, April 20, 2012

$AAPL entry 4/20

20 apr - with apple down 15ish during day, i entered into credit put spread at near end of day:

Sell the May510/515 credit put spread at .90 x10 =$900 credit

Trademonster shows 79% probability of max profit, but im sure its distorted a bit from earnings tuesday. if stock runs into earnings i will take profits. stock is dancing with the 50day that everyone and their cat is watching. so using the low from march support line to shoot against i kept credit spread under that.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

4/19/2012 Fast Money web extra $MSFT $MCD $GE

desk talks about these stocks plus the usual wornout bit from adami about how you could be watching this segment anytime in the future since its on the internet. heres the video clip web extra

$FFIV setup for new entry 4/19/2012

19apr - now that earnings are out, heres what im looking at for a possible new entry. now have a huge gap from earnings, and a smaller gap from last week. not comfortable entering now with credit put spreads..if stock pulls back to test the 50day will price out spreads at/below the recent lows / support line at 120. low of today is about 132.. breaking below that would expect it to keep going lower either to 50day or full gap fill. initial alert at 130.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

4-18-2012 Mad Money Lightning round $LVS $FRO $AAPL

cramer covers these and a few more on show tonight, here is the video

4-18-2012 Fast Money web extra $MSFT

i think microsoft is a yawner , i dont trade or follow, but the desk has some comments ahead of is video video

A myth of an ITM short call $AAPL

going to answer a repeated question. i have jan2014 DITM calls on AAPL, selling out of the money short calls against it for income..just like a covered call with stock. stock took off last few months so month to month i have been rolling that short call up in strikes every month..gaing 15-20 points each month.. so currently have the May 585 short calls.

the question/comment i get is "you are not making any money with the short call being so far in the money"

not true. with stock at 610, the may 585 is going for $45 ($4500). 585+45 = 630 at a glance you can see this call has $20 of time premium. if stock stays at 610 at may opex then that $20 goes to zero.. and i keep that $2000. Then close out the short call and roll to something in June based on my thesis. I didnt plan for the short call to be in the money but now that it is i am still able to profit, plus that $45 gives me quite a bit of downside protection on sell in may and go away movement.

Point is you do not "HAVE" to sell your short call out of the money when doing diagonals or covered calls. you can still profit on ITM calls.

$FFIV credit put spread entry 4/18/2012

19Apr- after an initial selloff the stock recovered and moved into the 130's..about where options had it priced in.. took profits this morning.

Buy to Close Apr105/110 credit put spreads at .05x10 =$50
Profit= $650


18apr -have posted that i would do this trade for 3 weeks. again, this is the exception to not entering credit spreads prior to earnings. reason i am doing this nowis that i have diagonals on it as well.. that would be a DITM LEAP and have an APR 115 short call.. will keep the Leap no matter how it moves so i ignore that part of diagonal.. as of this second the 115short call has $10 left, alot of it is the IV increase into earnings of course. That $10 from the short call becomes an added hedge to a credit put spread position.. consider it the same as if you had an iron condor..the call credit spreads hedge the puts.

Sold the Apr 105/110 credit put spreads at .70 x 10 =$700 credit

the 110/105 spread lines up with what would be a gap fill if it drops on earnings, also lines up with the 150day moving average.

- stock moves up then put spread profits and i roll short call to May and look at May credit put spreads
- stock between 110-115, i keep the $1000 from short call and put spreads profits, sell another short call for may, and look at May credit put spread lower
- stock below 110, roll credit put spreads down and out to may, keep the $1000 from short call, sell another short call or a call ratio spread for may

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Mad Money Lightning round $DNDN $CMG

cramer covers a few stocks in lightning round $CMG $DNDN, chevron... CMG reports on thursday

here is the link for the showMad Money lightning round

Monday, April 16, 2012

4/16/2012 Fast Money web extra $IBM $INTC

tonights show had a few comments on IBM and INTC, here is the clip fast money web extra

closing the trade from -4-16/2012 todays $AAPL entry

17 apr - took profits on today big up day.

Buy to close - May515/520 credit put spreads .63x10 =$630
Profit for one day trade: $320

strategy of this trade was not to hold till may, but to take advantage of the huge drop, spike in premiums, spike in IV and hitting a support line.. intention was to be out prior to earnings. about at 35% winner..Next.

16apr per the setup from this weekend. stock selling of this morning, was looking at the fat crayon level of the post gap lownear 580..stock was moving fast since most of move happened in few minutes. was looking at level at/below the low near 520 from few months ago to shoot against.. entered order at high side of bidask. got filled as it bounced around..not an exact tag of this line but close enough. also IV spikes as it sells off so the spread premium gets juiced a bit as well. Spread is under the 50day moving average also. i would like to close this out ahead of earnings but am ok holding this level if necessay if it goes down further.

Sold May 515/520 credit put spreads at .95 x10 =$950 credit

Sunday, April 15, 2012

$FFIV trade for this week

as ive posted for last few weeks, i will be making a credit put spread entry this week prior to earnings. i currently still have diagonal spreads with a DITM call LEAP and short Apr 115 calls. Since i will hold the LEAP regardless of what happens with earnings i can treat the short 115 call as a hedge to any credit put spread. Right now im considering either the 105/110 credit put spread or the 100/105 to be entered day of earnings. i dont normally enter credit spreads ahead of earnings but having the short call premium as a hedge lets me do that. leaning towards the 100/105, but will see where stock is right before earnings.

Actions after earnings:
1. if stock moves down below 115, i keep all the short call premium and sell a short call for may. if below 105 then roll credit put spreads to may. 105 level is what id be shooting against for this month since 200day is there. that short call premium helps to pay for any added lots.
2. if stock moves up, credit put spread profits quickly since opex is friday. short call gets rolled to may either to same strike or to 120.

$VHC chart and setup

9jun - been a while since i visited this one, if you got in on the setup from 15apr below, keep raising your stops as the stock moves up. your next buy point if you can add more shares is a break of the recent high near 36ish. above average volume is preferable.

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15apr  - setup for a possible trade, a break above the recent high near 27 would be entry point. use about a 1-1.5 dollar stop. above average volume would be helpful on the breakout.

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Saturday, April 14, 2012

$RMBS chart and setup

not been too good last few months. would wait to enter until breaking this near term downtrend, avoid till then. use a stop right under fridays low.

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$DNDN chart and setup

not had a good last few months. would wait for it to bring this downtrend.. then use right below fridays low as your stop. avoid until the downtrend is broken.

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$CWEI chart and setup

your buy point is breaking above the downtrend line. use a stop below fridays low..or worst case below the 72 level.

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$BRY chart and setup for next week

pretty easy setup if you are trading this. buy if it breaks thru the 200day moving average, use a stop under fridays low which would also be breaking the support line.

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$ELN chart and setup for next week

been in a downtrend for 2weeks but holding the 50day moving average this week.. buy point is breaking the top of this downtrend..about at 14.. us a stop 15-20cents under the 50day moving average.. 13.25 or so.

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$AAPL chart and setup for next week 4/16/2012

since earnings are the tuesday after next it will be unlikely i enter with a credit put spread until then unless there is some type of rapid selloff..either apple specific or general market selloff..if that happens this week i will be looking at these levels. there is a gap at 12march, the low after that gap is 575..will be watching to hold that, or if it drops thru that level, fills the gap i will watch for the 50 day moving average level near 556. if either of these levels hit and hold i would like to get a credit put spread using the low from 6march to shoot against..right about 520. this setup is only on a quick selloff othewise ill wait for earnings. setting initial alert for 590.  likely do a low premium trade for earnings...maybe a weekly/may call calender..will post when weeklies come on the board to see how much movement is being priced in.

Friday, April 13, 2012

$GOOG post earnings setup 4/13/2012

now that earnings are out, the future seems more uncertain with the stock split coming. until then, i am still going to stick to the 600 fat crayon support then look at getting under the 565 level... selloff today down to the 50day..riskier trade would be enter new credit put spreads at/below the 200 day near going to let it settle down a bit after this stock split hubbub and see if it sells off some more.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

$GS Options Action trade (mike) -4/12/2012

on tonights options action segment Video Clip , mike talks about the following trade for earnings:

Sell the April 115 put for $1.00
Buy the May 115 put for $2.90  -- using his prices
debit of $1.90 ($190) per one lot

this is a "put calender" . i like his explanation as to why to put this on, but i disagree that this is the stock to do that with. the premise that the front month option decays more rapidly than the second month is well known, but i think it is most effective if that front month is VERY elevated.. such as GOOG's today with the weeklies having an IV in the 120s vs 50s for the regular Apr options. with GS the April (front month) is only at 37 with the May's being 31... so will not have a huge IV crush after earnings since its not hugely high. I would expect you would need a move almost right to 115 for this to get you any decent profit.. The Trademonster analyse tab shows this trade with a 10lot to have max profit (115pin) of about $2300 with max loss the $1900... not the usual 10-1 type payout return for calenders.  I would not enter this calender.

second, trademonster shows earnings to be 17apr, before open i believe.. although he mentions the trade on tonights show, if i was going to enter this trade i would do it monday, stock was up $4+.. might be down $4 tomorrow or up $4 more tomorrow and monday... so the 115 strike might not be what you want to do then... always pays to wait till day of or day prior to put on these type of spreads incase it moves significantly in either direction from show date to earnings date.

Fast money web extra 4/12/2012 - $FRO $AIG $SPY

desk answers some tweets tonight:

Karen comments on here Frontline position

Doc J comments on AIG

Keith comments on trading range of SPY

here is the link to the video clip apr12 web extra

sorry, dont trade any of these names to be able to make additional comments tonight so you will just have to settle for a picture that has no relevance to stocks.

$GOOG setup for after earnings 4/12/2012

if google sells off on earning i will be looking to enter into credit put spreads. likely May but will look at April just in case. weekly options pricing in about at $40 move, so some levels im watching is the fat crayon support at 600 which matches the implied move. Also have eye on the 200day near 588. moves down to either of these levels will price out some credit put spreads at /below that multimonth support line near 565. pretty simple setups if it sells off.

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$JOY roll comments

12apr - had an Apr 72/75 credit put spread since right after earnings...was looking ugly for a while and came back today. with stock at 77. stock has moved day to day based on what may or may not be happening with china growth. stock is up $3+ today..when stocks are up rolling to next month works in your favor.. so instead of playing chicken with this spread right up to the opex date and the once a week china pmi's, im going to roll this to may.

since stock is up 5% the pricing works in my favor..i am able to lower the strikes from the apr 72/75 down to the may 70/72. plus i did not need to increase the lot size..was able to stay the same size AND lower the strikes and i did it for a small credit. Win-win-win for me. and i get another 30days. Add that small credit to the cost basis from Apr is the new "breakeven" price.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

How to use a Diagonal Spread on $AAPL

This strategy is for a bullish thesis and is exactly like a covered call with stock. Instead of buying 100 shares for $63000, buy a Jan2014 500 strike call for about $183 ($18300). if you pull up the "delta" for this option it is about .76 which means for every $1 move in the stock, this option goes up .76 cents..$10 move =$7.60. So with this LEAP option you can get 76% of the participation without having to shell out huge amounts of cash.

Buy Jan2014 500call for $183

Nowadd a short call in the front month to bring in some income from month to month..(just like a covered call), lets use May since April is almost over. Sell the May 680call for about $14 ($1400). This call will not require any additional margin or buying power since the jan2014 call offsets it..just like how common stock offsets a short call when you put on covered call positions.

Sell May 680call for $14

If on May opex is at 680 or lower you keep the $1400, at first glance you might think that break even is 694..for just this short call it is, but for the "position", using the Trademonster analyse tab, the breakeven is way up there, at 800 share price at may opex the "position" profit is $3000+. thats because the jan2014 call is gaining in profits offsetting the short call.

If stock is below 680 at opex your effectively have lowered your average price for that 2014 call. You can continue selling short calls, monthlies, or weeklies, do collars, put spread collars as you see fit around earnings as well.

The key for me on diagonals is that i will hold that 2014 call regardless of the day to day moves of the stock..just like when you say your aaple stock is a long term hold or a core position. so some months i keep all that short call premium, some months have to roll the short call up and out to next month. doesnt matter, since its a long term position, just cashing in on that premium every month like a dividend.

was going to say she likes her aaple iphone, but its just a camera..oh well..she probably like diagonal spreads.