Monday, October 21, 2019

$NFLX busted trade ?


saw this response from Mike Khouw today on twitter to a question from someone that followed Mikes NFLX trade on options action:

Because you still own the Jan'20 puts you are synthetically long a call. I am not particularly bullish $NFLX here so my inclination would be to either a) close position/take profits or b) adjust into a nov/jan calendar.
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Ernest Bates
@ErnestRBates1
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@Michael_Khouw I put on the NFLX 280 Put calendar spread (short Oct. 18 weekly vs. long Jan. 2020) you recommended last week ahead of earnings.  Great recommendation!However, I did not close out my trade upon the Oct. 18 expiration, so I was put the stock. What shall I do next?

I took the liberty to respond to Ernest Bates directly and don't expect a response but wanted to share what action I would recommend. Given that I don't know the entry date or pricing or where the stock was at the time of entry.

First of and most importantly if you have a put calendar and the front month or weekly short put is about to expire either in or out of the money ALWAYS close that position. either buy it back, roll it out, roll it down. Don't let it dance around the short strike hoping to close out of the money to get every penny of the decay. the last thing you want to happen is to be forced to buy the stock (put the stock) at 280 for this trade. especially if that's going to force you into a margin position.

But now that you have been put the stock and have been forced to buy the shares at 280, assume just one lot of 100. im assuming your thesis was bearish to begin with so either sell the shares outright to exit this position or I recommended sell a covered call:

Replying to
against the long stock you were put.. sell Nov 277.50 calls at $9.50ish, stock at 277.65 as i type. Hope it gets called away

take in that juicy premium of $950 for the one lot and if it gets called away no problem. secondly he still had the long 280 put in Jan2020. for that portion I recommended:

Replying to
and part 2 sell short the Nov 265puts gets you to a Put calendar with your January puts $nflx

this is what Mike was recommending in part B, seem to recall that as I was typing the Nov265puts were in the $4-$5 range. this reestablishes the calendar spread, brings in another $400-$500 of premium.

If the stock goes down you have gains via the long 2020 put down to 260ish (nov265put-the $5 premium) and you've taken in the $950 from the covered call. if stock goes up you get the shares called away at about $287, keep the short put premium and can resell a Dec short put .

Just some thoughts, depends on your thesis going forward. can just close out everything and take any profits and move on to the next one.

but the main point is close that short put in some way to not have to go thru this exercise. you never know whats going to happen in the final 30minutes of the opex week or after hours or youre unable to watch the market in the last hour.  the only time I would let the stock get put to me if im ok holding the shares but in that instance I would just sell cash secured puts

I have no position in NFLX at the time of this post


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