Friday, September 21, 2012

update - condoring the $AAPL position

3 oct - yesterday i closed the 750/755 call credit spreads at .07 for some chump change, in hindsight it was way out of the money but im experimenting with using the aaplpain open interest metrics into strike selections.  stock made a nice recovery yesterday and today. was able to reenter some credit spreads this morning, the Oct 710/715 credit call spreads at .60 to recondor the position. the strikes are above the recent highs in the stock, was about 85% probability of max profit at opex when i was looking at them earlier.


27sep - was looking at condoring this position when stock was near its highs but just couldnt pull the trigger. would have been good winner during the recent pullback.. now with stock having a decent up day and near 678 im going to pull the trigger. ive been reading more of Aapl_pains postings and studying his Open interest charts , here is his chart from his website AAPL Pains site .. hard to see but the large blue spike indicates the highest call open interest at the 750 strike for Oct..his thesis is that i believe its 80% probability that stock does not go beyond the highest open interests of each put and call at opex...has had credible track record from what ive seen.. in order to get some added crumbs and since no added margin is required i sold the Oct 750/755 credit call spreads at .25 today..91%probability of max profit at opex per trademonster analysis tab..its way out there which is what i wanted...not some market timing call im trying to make just playing the percentages..mine and applepains. also give stock plenty of room to run on any hype since im long via other strategies.


21 sep - entered into new credit put spreads yesterday. even got an unlikely fill above the "mark" of the bid ask. should be alot of bullish headlines for the next quarter for Apple and holiday season starting. keeping the short strike right below the support line at 657ish, the 50day is rising quickly and will be above the short strike in week or so.. at time of entry the spread had an 83% probability of max profit at opex.

Sell to open Oct 650/655 credit put spreads at .80 credit

click--> to follow on twitter