22feb - at some point this will happen. the 737Max will be back in the air. ive made some good trades via Put sales and short calls and ratio spreads. im currently working some iron condors and have a DITM Jan2022 call. The stock seems like its itching for some good news and every positive Phil Lebeau piece on CNBC has been a tradeable event. as in a selloff gets a Put sale, a positive spike a short call 15bucks or so out of the money. Impressive how the stock continues to hold up despite the pounding of negative headlines. ie stock doesn't go down much on bad news. which got me entering the Jan2022 call months ago
so at some point the plane is coming back. i would assume the following headlines over the course of several weeks at some point this summer not necessarily in order. im thinking sooner than later since Phil Lebeau had a tweet that the CEO flew on the new Max a few days ago:
1. the FAA has cleared the 737Max to fly
2. pilot training/retraining has begun
3. airlines announce solid return to service dates / ability to book flights
4. modifications to the planes that having been completed and awaiting delivery have begun
5. deliveries of those modified completed planes has resumed
6. Phil Lebeau clip showing the very first "new and approved" 737max being delivered / accepted by airline XYZ, followed by the Fast Money crew discussing if anyone will actually fly this plane and how it should be renamed and maybe a twitter poll suggesting a new name
7. Announcement that the 737Max production line is getting staffed up again and a tentative date as to when production will resume.
8. Announcement that "new" orders have been received for the "new" 737Max
9. CNBC and the fake news media showing the legit first flight with passengers of the new Max, interviewing passengers before boarding and after landing with groundbreaking questions like "are you worried about the plane?" and "how was the flight?" . Grand slam will be a hot shot fake media "journalist" actually being on the plane and live streaming it. I nominate Greta
10. after 1-9, the fast money desk will announce that Boeing stock is underowned by mutual funds/hedge funds because of the previous uncertainty. ie good to go now
these are just off the top of my head, the FAA clearing to fly will be the biggest mover IMO. im sure some negative headlines will be thrown in. some lawsuits, who knew what, who said what.
so now how do i put on a trade (a cheap trade...which to me means $1.00 or so or less). August expiration is 180days away so i think that's enough time for the FAA to do their thing. im generally a premium seller so outside of selling Puts or risk reversals that doesn't leave many options. i don't want to sell an August Put just for the sake of this trade since not much of a time decay, just minimal movement as the stock moves. so here is what i came up with given the following thesis:
1. All or some of those headlines hit and the relief rally begins
2. that rally grinds higher as each headline pushes the stock higher
3. assumption that all this pushes the stock into the 375-400 range.
Trade that i put on was the Aug 370/385/410 call butterfly , note the top leg is 10bucks more away (broken wing). again wanting to be at $1.00 or less and wide bid/ask spreads, i adjusted that top call strike back and forth to see where it gets me closest to no cost. thought i had a slight credit but the fill was actually .22 debit which still works. profit range at AUG opex is between 370-400. with max profit being at 385pin. there might be mark to market gains as the stock bounces around. from experience ive learned to take profits sooner on butterflys vs rolling the dice to get that perfect pin. so max profit on a .22 cent investment is $15 ($1500) but i will have a target of exiting at 50% is $7.50 ($750). Losses begin if stock moves above 400.
unconfirmed reports that this was the pilot for the 737Max with CEO on it
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