13 jan
today was both satisfying but not profitable. satisfying that i followed my mechanics, set my alerts, took the action i wanted to after alert hit and was able to exit some positions that matched my "rules" BUT...
the frustrating thing that maybe one day i will have it dialed in is intra day closing of trades.. example.. i always say that ideal times to sell upside short calls is on an up day. you get higher premium, can choose a higher strike , etc ... so on monday after waiting and 4 down days in a row there was a decent up move and got a good fill on weekly 1100 call at $10.05 i believe off memory. the next 2 days as stock goes higher i see huge volume at same strike, i see a few on twitter mention the huge volume and they to add insult to injury it gets mentioned by Pete Najarian on cnbc who you know has front run the fuck out of it before going on air. i want to say it was in the mid 20s yesterday.. not really a problem since i could have rolled it for 50 points higher i noted in one of my tweets
over the last few weeks ive been changing my mechanics to NOT milk short calls till fridays, i figured i ended up rolling to next week for less premium or not up in strikes as much because i waited that one more day. so today ive got an order in working.. pennies away from a fill to roll the 1100 to next week 1120 for $13.50 i had it at one point.. that credit was staying pretty constant as the stock was selling off, dropping into the 12s and then its starting to look like i might not need that preemptive roll since the stock was in the 1060s i believe at the time so instead i just closed the 1100. bought back for 6.45 for about 40% win. but now towards end of day it was even under $1... so im feeling i lost $600 by not rolling at the correct time.. hindsight being 20/20
same example.. the other short call i was working this week was a 1065 .. bought a May 1025 call tuesday.. nearly at high of day and then pulled back , my fallback if my timing is off is to sell a weekly call against to lower the cost basis. im not selling the long call for a loss just for the sake of closing the position for the day. that short call was the 1065 . premium was $23..decent.. at the money. then same thing, stock moves higher.. net net the "trade" is at a loss with the short call losing more (till decay kicks in) than the long call is gaining.. so again im looking at rolling and end up today rolling the 1065 to next week 1080 for $11.05 credit.. again decent premium for a week AND 15points higher in strikes.. looks like that best price today was near $16 so again im thinking i lost about $500 in what coulda shoulda been. natural to think that maybe i didnt need to roll to next week after all and the 1065 could go out worthless tomorrow or bought back super cheap
that next week 1080 i rolled to fell in value 30+% so per my rule i bought it back also
the overall thought was take action today because tesla will rebound today or tomorrow and i can reenter both short call slots higher.. best case for $20+each at 1130 level or higher
im starting to think on those wednesday / thursdays when i have been rolling that i tend to do that too early in the day.. off the top of my head i cant think of a time when ive said to myself "im glad i did that this morning" its always been "i would have done alot better if i would have waited till the last hour"... like today.. would have been a near $3000 difference in fills. i remain confident i dont need to wait till friday like i used to but will try to wait longer in the day on those roll days... of course if tesla reversed today into closing im a fucking genius worthy of guru status
lastly.. all this hubbub is about 2 slots for short calls.. i still have 13 short calls at 1000/1140 strikes for jan28 after earnings that have about $40000 in time value remaining to decay.. best case stock is near 1140 before earnings so i can roll those 1140 as high as possible but still take in about $10per in credit in order to give as much upside as i can assuming an earnings beat in line with the delivery numbers just reported.
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