Saturday, October 20, 2012

$CF setup

20 oct - trying to be disciplined on the entry for this one. earnings look to be on 5nov now . would really like to see it test the 202-203 area and then i would like to get into a credit put spread at/below the 190 level.. some support there and the 20 day matched up to it nicely. on my watchlist. might take an entry on this before earnings.. will see

$AAPL Nov credit put spread entry

20 oct - crazy month for AAPL , like i tweeted, i took the loss on the Oct credit put spread instead of rolling for the sake of rolling and having to signficantly increase the lot size.. instead i will use that buying power that would have been needed for that roll and reenter a new credit put spread at better strikes for november..yes, i know earnings are this week. premiums are juiced because of the recent down moves and i wanted to get in on that. sold the Nov 565/570 credit put spreads at $1.10 . the 570 is right at some support from last earnings and is below the 200day.. best case the stock rallies into the mini ipad release and/or earnings and i will be looking at condoring this position at least above the 50 day. depending where the stock is on day of earnings i will be selling some OTM weekly short calls to go against my 2015 LEAPS and likely use a portion of that income on some cheap put calenders or put flys. this spread was about a 75% probability of max profit at time of entry.. note: if the stock rallies decently into the ipad / earnings events i may just take profits too vs condoring .. will make judgement call based on stock price at that time.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

personal update

16 oct - in the interest of transparency, to answer a few comments to "where ive been" or "how come you dont tweet anymore" ... a few people that i correspond with regularly know that i previously worked for a homebuilder and like many was layed off in during the credit crisis, thus began my full time trading career.. after hearing from a few buddies still in the industry about how hiring as begun again i took a shot and sent a resume to a homebuilder that had a new project starting up about 10 minutes from my house. given the choice of sitting at the house and doing my usual unsexy, uninteresting diagonal spreads and credit spreads sporadically vs legitimatically working, bringing in 70k+ starting, 401k, medical, etc AND doing diagonal spreads / credit spreads while at work, its a clear choice. seeing how im a badass builder, i have time for both.. so long story short.. 3 days after resume, took a preemployment aptitude test, 2 days later interviewed, 2 days later got an offer.. so been on the job for 2 days, getting the internet / computer situation squared away (might even have to get an iphone to be able to check stocks while i walk around) . will continue to post as needed but short term will be sporadic.. the trading is still happening but need to prioritize my time during the day and catch up on tweets / replies during the p.m.
    just wanted to share this in case you give a shit and not up and disappear for long stretches like some others on twitter or fake my way and pretend to be living it up during the day. (fyi, what you hear about new homebuilding on CNBC is no bullshit... legit labor shortage out there (plumbers, brickers, insulation crews, etc) but closings are targeted to be double next year vs this year. will look at some deep in the money LEAPS in the homebuilding sector when i get some leisure time.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Rip your face off rally?

an overused expression, mainly by the fast money crew is a "rip your face off rally" .. i propose that instead of that, start using a "punch to the nuts" move. can be used for either bullish or bearish

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

$CF levels for NOV

10 oct - noting that earnings are at the end of this month...the levels im watching on CF for a possible new credit put spread for NOV... its testing the 50day now but has some support near 200 and additional support near 190.. ideal spread would be to get at/below that 190 level which will probably be under the 200day as well.. i still have a Nov205/190 put spread going so that would be a hedge against any new credit put spreads..since i have that hedge i might do a rare credit put spread entry prior to earnings to take advantage of the juiced up premiums.. but will not make that move till right before depending on where the stock is at that time..might be at 190 then so entering a spread now would not be advised.