21 oct - had another bullshit session with the same gym bro. again retired Special Forces and is independent contractor advising on security issues. no particular order, review the conversation below from 10 Oct first:
- asked again about the possible attacks on the homeland and thanksgiving. he referenced that the timing might be in conjunction with the expiration of the latest budget continuing resolution which expires early Dec. explaining that federal anti terror agencies and task forces will have no money to conduct operations. gave example that if government shutdown happens that FBI will not be able to use their accounts to fly anywhere or even fuel their vehicles since they are GSA accounts. i said this isnt the first shutdown weve had, isnt there some type of IOU system to keep those agencies functioning... said something about "they" are trying to transfer some funds from something to something else to fund some anti terror taskforce. he seems to be current on whats happening. even referencing something i just read on my twitter stream while sitting in the truck in the parking lot prior.
-mentioned the brief hubbub about Biden meeting Delta Force operators while in Israel and their faces were not blurred. i said im sure this guys knew press would be there.. meaning it wasnt a meeting in a secure room, for your eyes only shit. he agreed.. the point i was making is everyone was all moist about not blurring the faces but had no issue with Delta Force actually being on the ground in Israel.. ie "no boots on the ground" ... he said that "the FBI HRT is also there (Hostage Rescue)
-forget the country but said some of the "protesters" that were arrested confessed that they were paid to protest in support of the Palestinians .. paid by Iran .. europe i believe it was.. makes sense
-i switched subjects to an internet podcast show i catch often .. The Shawn Ryan Show... guy taught John Wick his skills and ex SEAL.. has alot of tier 1 operators on show, recently a retired Delta operator from black hawk down days.. i found the segment very moving and felt for him as he struggled to cope even now.. personally i was at Fort Bliss at the time and missed the initial deployment into somalia by about 6weeks for a small armored task force.. i believe 24th infantry division (3d infantry division) sent some units.. asked gym bro where he was during black hawk down .. said he was "in country" .. started getting into specifics about how the administration mid op called the guys to say that the somali enemy are now our allies, so therefore all the support guys like spectre gun ships, more SF guys were grounded and the actual relief columns from 10th mountain and more Delta guys came to near shooting it out with the base security that would not let them leave. now ive read multiple books that included black hawk down.. the actual book, a book from a SEAL Sniper that was on overwatch.. i forget the name (not chris kyle) and thats the first ive heard anything like that.. but it makes perfect sense given how U.S. foreign policy works. my gym bro loves to talk so i let him ramble on about how when he was training forces in central america he would get a call to stop training these guys since now they are the enemy, they will begin training the old enemy to defeat the new enemy that just learned tactics from his team... seems typical
-i made a wiseass comment that too bad we couldnt have brought all that gear back from Afghanistan. would come in handy for ukraine.. said he expects another Blackwater private security company to stand up and much of their weapons sourcing will come from paying the taliban for the gear and weapons.
-tried again to get a stock suggestion from him, again noting he is not a trader but he brought one on his phone. again in the semiconductor space.. which i dont see the appeal if the regional conflict blows up.. stock is SNPS , never heard of... my 10minutes of twitter searching made it seam like they do the software for new chips.. options look illiquid and only monthly so dont see an entry for me. has had a good run though
if i drank id offer to get a beer with the guy and let him ramble on about some places hes been. Told me previously that while deployed to Bosnia during the ethnic fighting his guys would routinely have firefights with Russian Spectnaz teams.. hes a good dude, im just not able to put in the time to get the detailed responses since we are both about to get a workout in.. told him i expect some updates next time i see him
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10oct - couldnt think of a catchier title.. i had a conversation with a gym bro today. he is retired Special Forces and has done some "contract work" as well.. he currently is a consultant for Homeland Defense / FBI / and Intelligence agencies / businesses.. he basically talks to them about risks and compliances. ive always kept the conversations casual and general, not wanting to be super nosy but had a lengthier conversation today.. some topics in no particular order:
-main one first.. he said he expects some significant attacks on the U.S. homeland by Thanksgiving, essentially from Iran sponsored sleeper cells that have utilized the open border in the south. targets would be a mass shooting of some type to create mass chaos and media coverage. i specifically asked if the targets would be larger like power grids, etc.. said no .. asked him is sources.. "do you have a FBI buddy feeding you this or he just running his mouth"... implied that he still has "sources" from where he served during his "contract work" .. i left it at that
-said his phone "has been ringing off the hook" this weekend with the israel / Palestinian war going on. said months ago they blew him off and said they had intel about an attack happening months ago. i saw that on twitter myself already so i dont know if he was just rephrasing the same reports i read or he/his group had proprietary intel
- said those same guys calling from Homeland / Assistant secretary to the something something in the FBI want him to come talk. said you guys still owe me payments for the last four sessions.. something about payments super slow with the government shutdown nearly happening.
-for israel he said you will see the propaganda machine from israel kick in now reference the hostages.. to shape the information that they are martyrs to the fighting. bringing on families / parents to talk about how their loved one would fight , blah blah... intent is to dull the media outrage (ie the western support) if hostages are killed in the bombings.
-back to the coming attacks.. i said "by thanksgiving" sure is specific and not too far away.. he referenced some incidents recently that i never heard of..granted im not a news junkie.. i asked where would the targets be.. said look to the cities where the defund the police movements were popular... also said "just look whats happening in New york and Chicago"
-as far as Iran he said the key is if Syria will go along with anything, maybe ties to Hezbollah ? something something about Israel might attack Iran , which i dont agree with. i said i always heard that a limitation Israel had was a lack of / or a sufficient number of tanker refueling planes for the long flight and back unless some allies helped.. plus the obvious overflight of Syria/Jordan/Saudi Arabia/Iraq depending on their routes and i had thought that given previous Israeli air strikes on other arab countries (the strike on Iraq nuk site years ago) that iran as alot of their nuclear program underground. even the bunker buster type bombs might not be sufficient... didnt respond to that directly but said Iranian air defense is poor and they would rely on Syria for alot of it. seems like if thats the case then dont overfly syria, regardless.. i cant speak to Iranian air defense but id have to assume tactically to be on par with U.S. for planning purposes.. S-300/S-400 type stuff
- he acknowledged that Iran assisted with Hamas planning of the attacks. which shouldnt come as a big shock, flip it around.. the U.S. collaborates with its allies on regional issues.. same thing.. for discussion i asked what would the "regions" reaction be if Israel attacked Iran.. .i threw out some possibilities.. like Egypt/Jordan/Iraq/Lebanon/saudi arabia and others joining into an anti-israel coalition.. attacking tankers in the persian gulf again.. shia/sunni not withstanding... not a real response but said the timing of the Hamas attacks was to prevent the soon to be approved treaty/agreement between Israel / Saudi Arabia to more normalize relations and as part of that was a stipulation on Saudi Arabia that they could not assist any other arab neighbor against israel.. also the timing of the Hamas attack coincided with a somewhat paralyzed U.S. government with no speaker of the house. i didnt see the relevance.. regardless
-my preworkout was starting to kick in and wanted to wrap up the bullshit session so i transitioned to "knowing what you know and what you think will happen.. what would you be investing in or shorting" ... i couldnt follow his logic but the name he came up with was Marvel Tech (MRVL) because they had alot of military contracts for their semiconductors. i threw out NVDA , Intel, AMD ... he said he was impressed with MRVL with the amount of military work "when he visited them" to do security compliance checks.. dont know what exactly he would be looking at.
-also said if anything to sell airlines. .not really a no brainer given the reactions after 9/11 but he said travel will be down after the "attacks" .. could have just asked Bobby Axelrod for same answer really.
-he specifically said he didnt think anything for over the December holidays because Biden this or that.. seems backwards to me
Summary: this guy has stacked some bodies in several countries and has worked with Homeland and Law Enforcement agencies .. still is. so i will give him the benefit of the doubt... the timing of any attacks is the magic bullet for all counter intel types. I am going to do some work on MRVL and likely do a small position.. thinking at least a 6month out LEAP with some covered calls / spreads against along the way to lower the cost basis. as far as airlines, they have been dog shit for a while but will look for an entry for possibly Put spreads.. not betting the house. just some exposure.. might profit from general market direction anyway without a mass casualty event.
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