17Jan - closed this today with stock at 242ish for good win. target for exiting iron condors is around 21days left to opex and/or between 25%-50% of max profit. click the youtube video link below to see why. so today was 21days on the dot. im sure you could milk out some more decay by holding over the 3day weekend but trying to be mechanical on exits to get the high percentage of winners. since entry the stock went above 240. my put spread premium remaining at that time was only 5cents so I took profits on that and resold at higher strikes / higher delta. settled on the 215/225 credit put spread for .80 credit, 225 at 13 delta. I also doubled the lots. a 16delta is a one standard deviation move so in order to get little bit more premium I doubled the lots instead of going for a higher delta (higher strike price) in this case went to 2lots (keep the original 250/260 credit call spread untouched) so a credit of 1.60
200/210 credit put spread - .97 profit
215/225 credit put spread - 1.60credit received
250/260 credit call spread - 1.48 credit received
"adjusted" iron condor total credit $3.08 which closed today at 2.33. total profits after adding it all up was $1.72 for a 42% of max profit win. made all the profits on the put side, the call side was a scratch. worked out as expected though. closed right at 21 days and within the 25-50% target. starts to add up when you increase in lot size. im gaining experience and confidence on rolls and adjustments and that will transition into little bit higher lot sizes as the bank account increases. no bullshit.. review that video link for the research and reasoning behind taking profits like this vs riding to expiration. its a gamechanger. hope you followed and make some walking around money too. on to the next one.
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27dec
entered into iron condors on LULU on Friday with stock at 230ish. had a couple cash secured put sale trades right after earnings a few days back and have a diagonal spread going currently so I have a bullish outlook on this name. im on the lookout for a selloff day so premium pops in order to do another put sale.
using some of the guidelines from the Tastytrade videos ive seen recently
Sold the Feb 7 200/210 put spread and the 250/260 call spreads to make an iron condor for $2.50 credit.
Ideal entry points are near 45 days to opex and high IV rank/percentile and strike selection near 1standard deviation move which is near 16delta.
Feb7 strikes give me 42 days, the 210 put strike was at 14delta, 250 call strike at 23 delta. I feel there is more downside risk so went a little further down in delta on the puts and wanted to be comfortably below the 50day moving average and the low from the brief earnings selloff. the upper strike would be in nicely into 52week high territory. nothing special about the IV unfortunately.
Per the Tastytrade videos, statistically its a higher win percentage by going to a wider striker selection (the 10dollar wide puts and calls) vs doing the 5dollar wide for more lots so I went with the 10dollar wide. Ideal credit received is 1/3rd the width of strike but would have to be higher in delta for that so shooting for at least 25% of width on the 10dollar wide.
targets for exiting is 25-50% of max profit and/or near 21 days left to opex.
Tastytrade youtube video on managing winners
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