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1aug - earnings are now out, looks like small revenue miss..still good fundamentals.. as of right now only down 9, not quite the big whoosh down i was hoping for but still able to take a position. stock sold off a bit down to the 50day which seems to be holding now. as a minimum, any new credit put spreads would have to be at/below the 200day moving average, but im more comfortable with being at/below the support line at 390 which has held going back to march.
Sell to open the Aug385/390 credit put spreads at .40
Trademonster analysis tab shows this trade to have a 91% probability of max profit, not much premium but its the level im comfortable with.. the levels drive the strike selection not the premium amount.
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31july - with earnings tomorrow morning, ill be watching for a selloff on some type of europe disappointment or slowing growth. id like to see some selloff to the 390-400 level which is near the 200day and the support line from june. if that happens ill be looking at new credit put spreads then..price them out if it happens.. have to be carefull with mastercard spreads since the bid/asks are wide. might have to look to SEP also. always use limit orders. if a selloff happens i will also watch Visa closely, might get an entry there also
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